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US Market Outlook 03 August 2018

Posted by Tim Sholl on 03-Aug-2018 23:15:26

US Payroll numbers were just released and the headline number came out at 157k against the 190k expectation with the unemployment rate at 3.9% and average weekly earnings rising at 2.7% y/y. Revisions higher in May and June means that average job growth per month is still very strong with analysts speculating that the miss in headline number may be because of the closure of the Toys r Us chain.

The slightly lower number has put some pressure back on the USD which had been very strong fo past 24 hours. The EUR is last at 1.1590 up 6 , the GBP is at 1.3010 down 5 , and the JPY is at 111.45 stronger by 19.  The US Dollar index is last at 94.82 down 0.18%. Gold has rallied from overnight lows to be at 1215.10 up 7.40 and WTI Crude oil futures is at 68.96 flat.

Stock indices have been struggling with the potential for a major trade war between the US and China whilst the corporate earnings have been very good in both the US and Europe.  The Dow looks to open at 25314 down 13 , the S&P500 at 2828 up 1 , and the Nasdaq100 at 7379 up 7.

In the bond market we have seen rates generally rising with the Fed still signalling 2 more rate rises this year , the BOE raised rates but the market has discounted any more in near term , and the BOJ has tried to increase the range that 10yr bonds can trade in to 0-0.20% in a bid to get more trading of bonds taking place.

Latest prices are US10 at 2.97% down 1, the UK10 at 1.36% down 2 , the DE10 is at 0.43% down 3.

Look for AAPL and other large Tech companies to continue to move higher , whilst some of the large industrial companies may be hit if trade tensions increase again. 
Also it seems that the Mueller probe into Pres Trump and Russian influence is reaching a crucial point so watch for news.

Topics: Trading, Market News, US Market Outlook